Workshop on model uncertainty

ECMWF, Reading | 9-12 May 2022

Image © Fir0002/Flagstaffotos


In order to correctly describe the growth of forecast uncertainties, ensembles require representations of model uncertainties. These matter on all time scales from hours in data assimilation to months in seasonal forecasts. Developing these representations of model uncertainties is a major scientific challenge as random model errors are generally not directly observable and there are sources of model errors in all Earth system components. This workshop will be an opportunity to share recent advances in the field, to identify common interests and open research questions. While acknowledging the diversity of approaches that has emerged over the past two decades, the workshop will primarily focus on stochastic representations of model uncertainties and the following five main themes:

  • Uncertainty representations in convection-permitting ensembles
  • Physical consistency of perturbations
  • Stochastic parametrisation closures
  • Surface interface uncertainties (atmosphere-land/ocean/wave/sea-ice)
  • Evaluation of model uncertainty representations

ECMWF is seeking input and recommendations from the workshop participants regarding future work on these topics and especially encourages contributions describing research and development for improving model uncertainty representations in operational convection permitting ensembles.


The workshop will take place at the ECMWF Headquarters in Reading, 9-12 May 2022, and it will adopt a hybrid format with online and physical participation. Workshop registration and abstract submission are now open. The deadline is 10 January 2022.

  • At registration, you will be asked whether you prefer to participate in person or online and whether you would like to present; you can submit an abstract and indicate your preferred format (oral/poster).
  • Assuming there are no social distancing measures in place, we could accommodate 120 physical participants, which is the maximum capacity of our facilities. There is no limitation to the number of online participants.
  • We anticipate that many presentations will be in the form of posters which will be discussed in both dedicated online rooms and dedicated physical sessions.
  • The workshop organising committee will review the submitted abstracts and select the presentations. Presenters will be notified about acceptance in February.