Training course: Predictability and ensemble forecast systems

Monday, 27 November
09:00 → 09:30
Arrivals and registration
Speaker: Christopher Stewart (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
09:30 → 10:15
Introduction and practicalities
Speaker: Christopher Stewart (ECMWF)
Slides

Council Chamber

 		45m
10:15 → 10:45
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 → 11:40
Introduction to probabilistic seamless forecasting
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 → 11:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 → 12:45
Chaos and predictability limits
Speaker: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 → 13:45
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
13:45 → 14:40
Initial condition uncertainty
Speaker: Simon Lang (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
55m
14:40 → 14:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
14:45 → 15:40
Diagnostics (1)
Speaker: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
55m
15:40 → 16:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
16:00 → 16:30
Introduction to practial sessions - Making sure your computer works!
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

Classroom

 		30m
16:30 → 17:00
Express poster presentations
30m
17:00 → 18:00
Evening reception

Weather Room

 		1h
Tuesday, 28 November
09:15 → 10:15
Coupled sea ice-atmosphere variability
Speaker: Steffen Tietsche (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
1h
10:15 → 10:45
Coffee break & Group photo

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 → 11:40
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability
Speaker: Chris Roberts (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 → 11:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 → 12:45
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability - MJO
Speaker: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 → 13:45
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
13:45 → 14:40
Poster Session

Weather Room

 		55m
14:40 → 14:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
14:45 → 15:40
Coupled land-atmosphere variability
Speaker: Jonathan Day (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
55m
15:40 → 16:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
16:00 → 17:00
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability - ENSO
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
1h
Wednesday, 29 November
09:15 → 10:15
Initialisation techniques in coupled forecasting
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
1h
10:15 → 10:45
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 → 11:40
Model uncertainty
Speaker: Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 → 11:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 → 12:45
Ensemble verification (1)
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 → 13:45
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
13:45 → 14:40
Poster session

Weather Room

 		55m
14:40 → 14:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
14:45 → 15:40
Diagnostics (2)
Speaker: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
55m
15:40 → 16:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
16:00 → 17:00
Overview of forecast systems in extended and long range
Speakers: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF), Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)
Slides (Stockdale)
Slides (Vitart)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
17:45 → 19:45
Social Dinner

ECMWF

Reading
2h
Thursday, 30 November
09:15 → 10:15
Ensemble verification (2)
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
1h
10:15 → 10:45
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 → 11:40
Weather regimes and teleconnections
Speaker: Linus Magnusson (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 → 11:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 → 12:45
Post-processing and calibration Reforecasts - reliability diagrams
Speaker: Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 → 13:45
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
13:45 → 14:40
Practical session using SciLab (TBC)
Speakers: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF), Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF), Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF), Zied Ben Bouallegue (ECMWF)
Part1
Part2
Part3
Part4

Classroom/LCR

 		55m
14:40 → 14:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
14:45 → 15:40
Practical session continued
Speakers: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF), Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF), Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF), Zied Ben Bouallegue (ECMWF)

Classroom/LCR

 		55m
15:40 → 16:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
16:00 → 17:00
Practical session continued
Speakers: Antje Weisheimer, Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF), Zied Ben Bouallegue (ECMWF)

Classroom/LCR

 		1h
Friday, 1 December
09:15 → 10:15
Assessing the skill of long-range forecast & the predictability paradox
Speaker: Antje Weisheimer
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
1h
10:15 → 10:45
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 → 11:40
Post-processing with ML
Speaker: Mariana Clare (ECMWF)
Slides

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 → 11:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 → 12:45
Question and Answer Session
 1h

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