Training course: Predictability and ensemble forecast systems

Monday, 4 November
08:45 09:15
Arrivals and registration

ECMWF

Reading
30m
09:15 10:15
Introduction and practicalities
Speaker: Sophie Marsden (ECMWF)

Council Chamber

1h
10:15 10:45
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 11:40
Introduction to probabilistic seamless forecasting
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 11:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 12:45
Chaos and predictability limits
Speaker: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 13:45
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
13:45 14:40
Initial condition uncertainty
Speaker: Simon Lang (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
14:40 14:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
14:45 15:40
Diagnostics (1)
Speaker: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
15:40 16:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
16:00 16:30
Introduction to practial sessions - Making sure your computer works!
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

Classroom

30m
16:30 17:00
Express poster presentations
30m
17:00 18:30
Evening reception

Weather Room

1h 30m
Tuesday, 5 November
09:15 10:15
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability
Speaker: Chris Roberts (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
10:15 10:45
Coffee break & Group photo

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 11:40
Coupled sea ice-atmosphere variability
Speaker: Steffen Tietsche (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 11:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 12:45
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability - MJO
Speaker: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 13:45
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
13:45 14:40
Poster Session

Weather Room

55m
14:40 14:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
14:45 15:40
Coupled land-atmosphere variability
Speaker: Jonathan Day (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
15:40 16:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
16:00 17:00
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability - ENSO
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
Wednesday, 6 November
09:15 10:15
Initialisation techniques in coupled forecasting
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
10:15 10:45
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 11:40
Model uncertainty
Speaker: Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 11:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 12:45
Ensemble verification (1)
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 13:45
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
13:45 14:40
Poster session

Weather Room

55m
14:40 14:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
14:45 15:40
Diagnostics (2)
Speaker: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
15:40 16:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
16:00 17:00
Overview of forecast systems in extended and long range
Speakers: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF), Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
Thursday, 7 November
09:15 10:15
Ensemble verification (2)
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
10:15 10:45
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 11:40
Post-processing and calibration Reforecasts - reliability diagrams
Speaker: Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 11:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 12:45
Weather regimes and teleconnections
Speaker: Linus Magnusson (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 13:45
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
13:45 14:40
Practical session using SciLab (TBC)
Speakers: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF), Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF), Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF), Zied Ben Bouallegue (ECMWF)

Classroom/LCR

55m
14:40 14:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
14:45 15:40
Practical session continued
Speakers: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF), Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF), Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF), Zied Ben Bouallegue (ECMWF)

Classroom/LCR

55m
15:40 16:00
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
16:00 17:00
Practical session continued
Speakers: Antje Weisheimer, Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF), Zied Ben Bouallegue (ECMWF)

Classroom/LCR

1h
Friday, 8 November
09:15 10:15
Assessing the skill of long-range forecast & the predictability paradox
Speaker: Antje Weisheimer

ECMWF

Reading
1h
10:15 10:45
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 11:40
Post-processing with ML
Speaker: Mariana Clare (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 11:45
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 12:45
Question and Answer Session
1h

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