Training course: Predictability and ensemble forecast systems

Monday, 4 November
8:45 AM 9:15 AM
Arrivals and registration
Speaker: Christopher Stewart (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
30m
9:15 AM 10:15 AM
Introduction and practicalities
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

Council Chamber

1h
10:15 AM 10:45 AM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 AM 11:40 AM
Introduction to probabilistic seamless forecasting
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 AM 11:45 AM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 AM 12:45 PM
Chaos and predictability limits
Speaker: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 PM 1:45 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
1:45 PM 2:40 PM
Initial condition uncertainty
Speaker: Simon Lang (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
2:40 PM 2:45 PM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
2:45 PM 3:40 PM
Diagnostics (1)
Speaker: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
3:40 PM 4:00 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
4:00 PM 4:30 PM
Introduction to practial sessions - Making sure your computer works!
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

Classroom

30m
4:30 PM 5:00 PM
Express poster presentations
30m
5:00 PM 6:30 PM
Evening reception

Weather Room

1h 30m
Tuesday, 5 November
9:15 AM 10:15 AM
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability
Speaker: Chris Roberts (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
10:15 AM 10:45 AM
Coffee break & Group photo

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 AM 11:40 AM
Coupled sea ice-atmosphere variability
Speaker: Steffen Tietsche (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 AM 11:45 AM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 AM 12:45 PM
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability - MJO
Speaker: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 PM 1:45 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
1:45 PM 2:40 PM
Poster Session

Weather Room

55m
2:40 PM 2:45 PM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
2:45 PM 3:40 PM
Coupled land-atmosphere variability
Speaker: Jonathan Day (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
3:40 PM 4:00 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
4:00 PM 5:00 PM
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability - ENSO
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
Wednesday, 6 November
9:15 AM 10:15 AM
Initialisation techniques in coupled forecasting
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
10:15 AM 10:45 AM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 AM 11:40 AM
Model uncertainty
Speaker: Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 AM 11:45 AM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 AM 12:45 PM
Ensemble verification (1)
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 PM 1:45 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
1:45 PM 2:40 PM
Poster session

Weather Room

55m
2:40 PM 2:45 PM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
2:45 PM 3:40 PM
Diagnostics (2)
Speaker: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
3:40 PM 4:00 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
4:00 PM 5:00 PM
Overview of forecast systems in extended and long range
Speakers: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF), Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
Thursday, 7 November
9:15 AM 10:15 AM
Ensemble verification (2)
Speaker: Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
10:15 AM 10:45 AM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 AM 11:40 AM
Post-processing and calibration Reforecasts - reliability diagrams
Speaker: Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 AM 11:45 AM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 AM 12:45 PM
Weather regimes and teleconnections
Speaker: Linus Magnusson (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
1h
12:45 PM 1:45 PM
Lunch break

ECMWF

Reading
1h
1:45 PM 2:40 PM
Practical session using SciLab (TBC)
Speakers: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF), Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF), Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF), Zied Ben Bouallegue (ECMWF)

Classroom/LCR

55m
2:40 PM 2:45 PM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
2:45 PM 3:40 PM
Practical session continued
Speakers: Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF), Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF), Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF), Zied Ben Bouallegue (ECMWF)

Classroom/LCR

55m
3:40 PM 4:00 PM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
20m
4:00 PM 5:00 PM
Practical session continued
Speakers: Antje Weisheimer, Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF), Zied Ben Bouallegue (ECMWF)

Classroom/LCR

1h
Friday, 8 November
9:15 AM 10:15 AM
Assessing the skill of long-range forecast & the predictability paradox
Speaker: Antje Weisheimer

ECMWF

Reading
1h
10:15 AM 10:45 AM
Coffee break

ECMWF

Reading
30m
10:45 AM 11:40 AM
Post-processing with ML
Speaker: Mariana Clare (ECMWF)

ECMWF

Reading
55m
11:40 AM 11:45 AM
Comfort break

ECMWF

Reading
5m
11:45 AM 12:45 PM
Question and Answer Session
1h

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