Virtual Workshop: Warm Conveyor Belts – a challenge to forecasting
| Tuesday, 10 March | |||
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Introduction
Speaker:
Florian Pappenberger
(ECMWF)
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10m | |
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Session 1
Chair:
David Richardson
(ECMWF)
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An overview on the concept of warm conveyor belts
Speaker:
Heini Wernli
(ETH Zurich)
|
25m | |
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Aspirations for the workshop - Bringing WCB understanding into forecast system development
Speaker:
Mark Rodwell
(ECMWF)
|
25m | |
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Break
|
15m | |
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Session 2
Chair:
David Richardson
(ECMWF)
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Airborne active remote-sensing observations of warm conveyor belts
Speaker:
Andreas Schäfler
(DLR)
|
25m | |
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Embedded convection in the warm conveyor belt of a North Atlantic cyclone and its relevance for large-scale dynamics
Speaker:
Annika Oertel
(ETH Zurich)
|
25m | |
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The importance of warm conveyor belts for (upscale) error growth
Speaker:
Michael Riemer
(Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz)
|
25m | |
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Poster lunch
|
2h | |
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Session 3
Chair:
Linus Magnusson
(ECMWF)
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The role of cloud diabatic processes in the life cycle of Atlantic-European weather regimes
Speaker:
Christian M. Grams
(IMK-TRO, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT))
|
20m | |
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Examining model error in potential temperature and potential vorticity via weather forecasts at different lead times
Speaker:
Oscar Martinez-Alvarado
(National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, University of Reading)
|
20m | |
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The Impact of Warm Conveyor Belt Forecast Uncertainty on Variability in the Downstream Waveguide
Speaker:
Jeremy Berman
(University at Albany, SUNY)
|
25m | |
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Break
|
15m | |
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Session 4
Chair:
David Lavers
(ECMWF)
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Linking atmospheric rivers and warm conveyor belt airflows
Speaker:
Helen Dacre
(University of Reading)
|
20m | |
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Influence of Warm Conveyor Belts on the Predictability of Downstream High-Impact Weather
Speaker:
James Doyle
(Naval Research Laboratory)
|
25m | |
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West Coast Forecast Challenges and Development of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance
Speaker:
Marty Ralph
(Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego)
|
20m | |
| → |
Adjoint Sensitivity and the Impact of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Observations for North Pacific Forecasts
Speaker:
Carolyn Reynolds
(Naval Research Laboratory)
|
20m | |
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Workshop photo - Bluejeans Gallery
|
20m | |
| Wednesday, 11 March | |||
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Session 5
Chair:
Stephen English
(ECMWF)
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How well do current observations observe key features of warm conveyor belts?
Speaker:
Stephen English
(ECMWF)
|
25m | |
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Assimilation of water vapour, cloud and precipitation observations in extratropical cyclones
Speaker:
Alan Geer
(ECMWF)
|
25m | |
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The prospects for radars on satellites to provide better observations of warm conveyor belts
Speaker:
Anthony Illingworth
(University of Reading)
|
25m | |
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Break
|
15m | |
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Session 6
Chair:
Tim Hewson
(ECMWF)
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How do diabatic processes in warm conveyor belts influence circulation and Rossby waves at tropopause level?
Speaker:
John Methven
(University of Reading)
|
20m | |
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Revisiting the isentropic view of PV modification in warm conveyor belts
Speaker:
Ben Harvey
(NCAS / University of Reading)
|
20m | |
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Three-dimensional radiative transfer around a tropopause fold
Speaker:
George Craig
(Meteorological Institute, LMU Munich)
|
25m | |
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Lunch break
|
1h | |
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Session 7
Chair:
Irina Sandu
(ECMWF)
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Rapid ascents embedded in a warm conveyor belt observed and modeled at kilometer-scale resolution
Speaker:
Florian Pantillon
(Laboratoire d'Aérologie)
|
20m | |
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Impact of different microphysics on the warm conveyor belt of a deep extratropical cyclone observed during the NAWDEX campaign and on its associated ridge building.
Speaker:
Marie Mazoyer
(CNRM, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France)
|
20m | |
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Diabatic processes in the Warm Conveyor Belt of the Stalactite Cyclone: sensitivity to two convective parametrization schemes of the global Météo-France model ARPEGE
Speaker:
Gwendal Riviere
(LMD/IPSL, ENS, CNRS)
|
20m | |
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Break
|
15m | |
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Session 8
Chair:
Irina Sandu
(ECMWF)
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Microphysics and dynamics of snowfall associated to a warm conveyor belt over Korea
Speaker:
Josué Gehring
(EPFL)
|
25m | |
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The effect of clouds, radiation and turbulence on upper-level PV
Speaker:
Heini Wernli
(ETH Zurich) (presenting for Elisa Spreitzer, ETH Zurich)
|
25m | |
| → |
Linking Predictability barriers and diabatic processes
Speaker:
Claudio Sanchez
(MetOffice)
|
20m | |
| → |
Break
|
15m | |
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Session 9
Chair:
David Lavers
(ECMWF)
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| → |
Impact of model upgrades on diabatic processes in extratropical cyclones and downstream forecast evolution
Speaker:
Suzanne Gray
(Department of Meteorology, University of Reading)
|
20m | |
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GPM Satellite Radar Observations of Precipitation Mechanisms in Atmospheric Rivers
Speaker:
Forest Cannon
(Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
|
20m | |
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Observational analysis of atmospheric rivers from dropsondes
Speaker:
Alison Cobb
(Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego)
|
20m | |
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Lunch - Coffee - Night Owl - Posters and discussion
|
1h | |
| Thursday, 12 March | |||
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Session 10
Chair:
Frederic Vitart
(ECMWF)
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Development of a logistic model to study warm conveyor belts on subseasonal time-scales
Speaker:
Julian Quinting
(Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)
|
20m | |
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Verification of warm conveyor belts in ECMWF IFS reforecasts
Speaker:
Jan Wandel
(Karlsruhe Institute of Technology )
|
20m | |
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Exceptional air mass transport and dynamical drivers of an extreme wintertime Arctic warm event
Speaker:
Hanin Binder
(ETH Zurich)
|
20m | |
| → |
Warm Conveyor Belts and Their Role for Cloud Radiative Forcing in the Extratropical Storm Tracks
Speaker:
Hanna Joos
(IAC ETH Zurich)
|
25m | |
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Break
|
15m | |
| → |
Introduction to break out groups
Speaker:
Mark Rodwell
(ECMWF)
|
10m | |
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Working group sessions - Bluejeans
|
2h | |
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Lunch (and prepare WG summaries)
|
2h | |
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Session 11
Chair:
Mark Rodwell
(ECMWF)
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Working group summaries and final plenary discussions
|
2h | |