Virtual Workshop: Warm Conveyor Belts – a challenge to forecasting

Tuesday, 10 March
9:00 AM 9:10 AM
Introduction
Speaker: Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)
10m
Session 1
Chair: David Richardson (ECMWF)
9:10 AM 9:35 AM
An overview on the concept of warm conveyor belts
Speaker: Heini Wernli (ETH Zurich)
25m
9:35 AM 10:00 AM
Aspirations for the workshop - Bringing WCB understanding into forecast system development
Speaker: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)
25m
10:10 AM 10:25 AM
Break
15m
Session 2
Chair: David Richardson (ECMWF)
10:25 AM 10:50 AM
Airborne active remote-sensing observations of warm conveyor belts
Speaker: Andreas Schäfler (DLR)
25m
10:55 AM 11:20 AM
Embedded convection in the warm conveyor belt of a North Atlantic cyclone and its relevance for large-scale dynamics
Speaker: Annika Oertel (ETH Zurich)
25m
11:25 AM 11:50 AM
The importance of warm conveyor belts for (upscale) error growth
Speaker: Michael Riemer (Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz)
25m
11:55 AM 1:55 PM
Poster lunch
2h
Session 3
Chair: Linus Magnusson (ECMWF)
1:55 PM 2:15 PM
The role of cloud diabatic processes in the life cycle of Atlantic-European weather regimes
Speaker: Christian M. Grams (IMK-TRO, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT))
20m
2:20 PM 2:40 PM
Examining model error in potential temperature and potential vorticity via weather forecasts at different lead times
Speaker: Oscar Martinez-Alvarado (National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, University of Reading)
20m
2:45 PM 3:10 PM
The Impact of Warm Conveyor Belt Forecast Uncertainty on Variability in the Downstream Waveguide
Speaker: Jeremy Berman (University at Albany, SUNY)
25m
3:15 PM 3:30 PM
Break
15m
Session 4
Chair: David Lavers (ECMWF)
3:30 PM 3:50 PM
Linking atmospheric rivers and warm conveyor belt airflows
Speaker: Helen Dacre (University of Reading)
20m
3:55 PM 4:20 PM
Influence of Warm Conveyor Belts on the Predictability of Downstream High-Impact Weather
Speaker: James Doyle (Naval Research Laboratory)
25m
4:25 PM 4:45 PM
West Coast Forecast Challenges and Development of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance
Speaker: Marty Ralph (Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego)
20m
4:50 PM 5:10 PM
Adjoint Sensitivity and the Impact of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Observations for North Pacific Forecasts
Speaker: Carolyn Reynolds (Naval Research Laboratory)
20m
5:15 PM 5:35 PM
Workshop photo - Bluejeans Gallery
20m
Wednesday, 11 March
Session 5
Chair: Stephen English (ECMWF)
9:00 AM 9:25 AM
How well do current observations observe key features of warm conveyor belts?
Speaker: Stephen English (ECMWF)
25m
9:30 AM 9:55 AM
Assimilation of water vapour, cloud and precipitation observations in extratropical cyclones
Speaker: Alan Geer (ECMWF)
25m
10:00 AM 10:25 AM
The prospects for radars on satellites to provide better observations of warm conveyor belts
Speaker: Anthony Illingworth (University of Reading)
25m
10:30 AM 10:45 AM
Break
15m
Session 6
Chair: Tim Hewson (ECMWF)
10:45 AM 11:05 AM
How do diabatic processes in warm conveyor belts influence circulation and Rossby waves at tropopause level?
Speaker: John Methven (University of Reading)
20m
11:10 AM 11:30 AM
Revisiting the isentropic view of PV modification in warm conveyor belts
Speaker: Ben Harvey (NCAS / University of Reading)
20m
11:35 AM 12:00 PM
Three-dimensional radiative transfer around a tropopause fold
Speaker: George Craig (Meteorological Institute, LMU Munich)
25m
12:05 PM 1:05 PM
Lunch break
1h
Session 7
Chair: Irina Sandu (ECMWF)
1:05 PM 1:25 PM
Rapid ascents embedded in a warm conveyor belt observed and modeled at kilometer-scale resolution
Speaker: Florian Pantillon (Laboratoire d'Aérologie)
20m
1:30 PM 1:50 PM
Impact of different microphysics on the warm conveyor belt of a deep extratropical cyclone observed during the NAWDEX campaign and on its associated ridge building.
Speaker: Marie Mazoyer (CNRM, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France)
20m
1:55 PM 2:15 PM
Diabatic processes in the Warm Conveyor Belt of the Stalactite Cyclone: sensitivity to two convective parametrization schemes of the global Météo-France model ARPEGE
Speaker: Gwendal Riviere (LMD/IPSL, ENS, CNRS)
20m
2:20 PM 2:35 PM
Break
15m
Session 8
Chair: Irina Sandu (ECMWF)
2:35 PM 3:00 PM
Microphysics and dynamics of snowfall associated to a warm conveyor belt over Korea
Speaker: Josué Gehring (EPFL)
25m
3:05 PM 3:30 PM
The effect of clouds, radiation and turbulence on upper-level PV
Speaker: Heini Wernli (ETH Zurich) (presenting for Elisa Spreitzer, ETH Zurich)
25m
3:35 PM 3:55 PM
Linking Predictability barriers and diabatic processes
Speaker: Claudio Sanchez (MetOffice)
20m
4:00 PM 4:15 PM
Break
15m
Session 9
Chair: David Lavers (ECMWF)
4:15 PM 4:35 PM
Impact of model upgrades on diabatic processes in extratropical cyclones and downstream forecast evolution
Speaker: Suzanne Gray (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading)
20m
4:40 PM 5:00 PM
GPM Satellite Radar Observations of Precipitation Mechanisms in Atmospheric Rivers
Speaker: Forest Cannon (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
20m
5:05 PM 5:25 PM
Observational analysis of atmospheric rivers from dropsondes
Speaker: Alison Cobb (Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego)
20m
8:00 PM 9:00 PM
Lunch - Coffee - Night Owl - Posters and discussion
1h
Thursday, 12 March
Session 10
Chair: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)
8:30 AM 8:50 AM
Development of a logistic model to study warm conveyor belts on subseasonal time-scales
Speaker: Julian Quinting (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)
20m
8:55 AM 9:15 AM
Verification of warm conveyor belts in ECMWF IFS reforecasts
Speaker: Jan Wandel (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology )
20m
9:20 AM 9:40 AM
Exceptional air mass transport and dynamical drivers of an extreme wintertime Arctic warm event
Speaker: Hanin Binder (ETH Zurich)
20m
9:45 AM 10:10 AM
Warm Conveyor Belts and Their Role for Cloud Radiative Forcing in the Extratropical Storm Tracks
Speaker: Hanna Joos (IAC ETH Zurich)
25m
10:15 AM 10:30 AM
Break
15m
10:30 AM 10:40 AM
Introduction to break out groups
Speaker: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)
10m
10:40 AM 12:40 PM
Working group sessions - Bluejeans
2h
12:40 PM 2:40 PM
Lunch (and prepare WG summaries)
2h
Session 11
Chair: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)
2:40 PM 4:40 PM
Working group summaries and final plenary discussions
2h

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